IGV/SMH has bounced 48.1% from its Jun 22, 2026 low and is up 16.2% over 63 sessions
Chamath says open source clones make software IP and moats worthless, and the ratio is still 42.3% below its Oct 22, 2025 peak. But IGV/SMH sits above its 50-day average and has gained 16.2% in 63 sessions, so the lag is the one-year story and the recent tape is a catch-up.
One line divides Software (IGV) by Semis (SMH). When it rises, IGV is beating SMH; when it falls, SMH is winning, whatever the market as a whole is doing. The second line is the ratio's own 50-day average, its trend.
If software moats were really worthless, this ratio should keep sliding, and a 48.1% rebound from the Jun 22 low says the market isn't pricing that right now. Watch the 50-day average: a drop back below it would put the one-year lag back in charge.
Chamath on All-In: open source decompiled clones of Adobe's core products mean software IP and moats are worthless.
All-In Podcast, Chamath PalihapitiyaIGV/SMH is 42.3% below its Oct 22, 2025 peak, 48.1% above its Jun 22, 2026 low, above its average, up 16.2% over 63 sessions.
The lag is real over the year, but the ratio has turned up and the current trend runs against the claim.
Get The Signal by email
Two letters a week: a Mid-Week Check-In on Wednesdays and a Week in Review on Saturdays.
We use your address only to send The Signal. Unsubscribe any time. Privacy
Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes through Oct 16, 2026; Nova One's calculation. Every number on the chart is computed from the source data in the same run that drew it. The Signal is research, not investment advice. How we work · Disclosures