MU is up 93.1% since Apr 17 while SMH gained 16.3% and SPY 7.5%, and IGV beat semis at 22.6%
Dan Nathan says Micron's earnings growth is a major contributor to S&P EPS growth, which supports a narrow-leadership market. Price agrees, but the narrowness sits in one stock: MU's 93.1% is 85.6 points clear of SPY, while SMH at 16.3% trailed IGV at 22.6%, so the semis group isn't the leader.
Each line is one instrument's price, reset to 100 on the first day so they all start from the same place. A line at 120 is up 20% since then; below 100 is a loss. The gaps between the lines are the story: who is leading, and by how much.
Nathan's point is about earnings. The price action shows the same narrowness inside the chip group itself: one name is doing the lifting, not the sector. Watch whether SMH's 16.3% starts to close the gap, which would show the rally spreading across chipmakers.
Micron's earnings growth is a major contributor to S&P EPS growth, which supports a narrow-leadership market.
RiskReversal Pod, Dan NathanMU +93.1%, SMH +16.3%, SPY +7.5%, IGV +22.6% over 126 sessions from Apr 17. Gap between MU and SPY is 85.6 points.
Leadership is narrower than the semis trade. It is one name, and software outran the semiconductor ETF.
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Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes through Oct 16, 2026; Nova One's calculation. Every number on the chart is computed from the source data in the same run that drew it. The Signal is research, not investment advice. How we work · Disclosures