Wednesday Mid-Week Check-In: July 14–15, 2026

The CPI print landed. ASML raised its outlook. And IBM just handed the AI infrastructure thesis its most clarifying data point of the week. Thursday's TSMC earnings are the only number left that actually matters, and the setup going in has never been cleaner.

Section I · Where We Stand: Monday Through Wednesday

Cooling Inflation, a Chip Rally, and One Beautiful Disaster

June CPI rose 3.5% annualized, below economists' expectations of 3.8%. The print likely takes some pressure off the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, though the market has still priced in one 25-point rate hike sometime in 2026. That is the macro backdrop the week needed: not a rate-cut guarantee, but enough daylight to keep growth names bid.

The S&P 500 rose 0.38% on Tuesday, its third positive session in four, with NVDA the largest single positive contributor. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.90%, posting its fourth gain in five sessions. Technology led all S&P sectors, with the SPDR Tech fund up +1.29%.

The non-consensus read this week: IBM's -24% earnings crater is structurally bullish for the pillar. IBM plunged roughly 25% after issuing an earnings warning, noting that enterprise clients are shifting spending away from software and mainframes toward AI infrastructure. IBM's CEO Arvind Krishna explicitly highlighted rising cybersecurity and AI infrastructure priorities among customers, triggering a massive rally in cybersecurity firms, with CrowdStrike topping the S&P 500 on Tuesday. IBM's loss is not a demand signal; it is a capex routing signal. That spend is moving toward the names this thesis owns, not away from them.

The H200 catalyst is also now confirmed, not speculated. On July 14, the Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security told a House committee that initial shipments of NVDA's H200 chips to China have commenced, though the volume remains extremely low, with only a handful reaching their destinations. NVDA shares rose +4% to $211.80 on the news, giving the company a $5.13 trillion market cap. Volume is trivial for now; the policy direction is not.

This Wednesday morning, ASML delivered the equipment-layer confirmation the week needed. ASML reported Q2 2026 total net sales of €9.3 billion, a gross margin of 54.0%, and net income of €2.9 billion. ASML raised its full-year 2026 outlook to €43–45 billion in sales with a gross margin of 54–56%, and guided Q3 to €11.0–12.0 billion with margins of 55–57%. The company also plans to expand 2027 capacity by approximately 30% for both EUV and immersion tools relative to 2026 levels, and is investigating a further 30% increase for 2028. That is not a company hedging its bets on AI demand. That is a company ordering more factories.

One live risk: U.S. Central Command carried out another wave of strikes against Iran late Tuesday, targeting dozens of military assets near the Strait of Hormuz in a seven-hour operation involving fighter aircraft, drones, and naval vessels. WTI futures moved to $80.14/barrel. Hormuz risk is real but has not broken the tape, growth continues to outrun the energy panic.

Section II · What's On Deck: Thursday and Friday

TSMC Speaks. The Thesis Gets Its Verdict.

Thursday is the week's entire event. TSMC reports Q2 2026 earnings on Thursday, July 16 at 2:00 PM ET. Consensus projects revenue growth of 32.2% year-over-year to approximately $39.8 billion. TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to the high end of its $52–56 billion range heading into this print.

Three numbers to watch: Q2 revenue versus the $39–40.2B guided range, Q3 guidance, and any revision to full-year capex. A strong Q3 forecast signals AI-chip demand is holding into the second half of the year. A cautious one could be the first real crack. ASML already gave us the equipment-demand read this morning. TSMC gives us the fabrication-demand read Thursday afternoon, and as TSMC is the primary fabricator of AI chips with direct revenue tied to demand from NVDA, Apple, AMD, and the major cloud providers, this print is the master check on everything.

Also Thursday: the Philadelphia Fed Index and June Retail Sales both drop at 8:30 AM ET. Netflix reports as well. Those are noise relative to TSMC.

Friday brings June Housing Starts and Building Permits, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15 AM, and the preliminary July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM. UMich sentiment will be watched for any Hormuz-driven consumer confidence erosion, but it is secondary to what TSMC says Thursday.

"IBM's crater is the most bullish demand-routing signal for AI infrastructure this week. That capex is moving toward the pillar, not away from it."

The fund's read: Three-for-three on the thesis drivers so far this week: CPI off the boil, ASML raising the curtain on equipment demand, and NVDA's H200 shipments confirmed. The AI infrastructure supercycle has not stumbled; it has been reaffirmed at every layer. TSMC Thursday is the capex binary the whole second half pivots on. If the print confirms and the Q3 guide holds, the late-July hyperscaler earnings window opens with the thesis fully intact. We are watching that call closely.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The Nova X Convergence Fund letter reflects the views of the author as of July 15, 2026, and is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.