Mid-Week Check-In: June 3, 2026

Three days, three record closes. The S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time on Tuesday and kept climbing Wednesday morning, while the Dow tagged 51,322. AI chips are doing the heavy lifting, and tonight, the fund's core custom-silicon play steps to the plate.

I. Mon–Wed: What's Working and What's Rattling

Chips Are the Only Game in Town

MRVL surged north of +12% Tuesday after NVDA CEO Jensen Huang called it "the next trillion-dollar company." AVGO tacked on +4.7% Monday to close at an all-time high of $481.57, pre-positioning ahead of tonight's Q2 print. The AI chip pillar is running. NVDA and AMD continue to benefit from the halo: Huang's software sector endorsement gave the whole stack a bid.

HPE also caught fire, surging on an AI-fueled guidance upgrade, a clean demand-side confirmation that enterprise AI server procurement is not slowing. That matters for the fund's broader AI infrastructure thesis.

Oil and Iran: The Uninvited Guest

WTI crude jumped +3.2% to $96.73, Brent at $98.80. Iran launched missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. The IEA warned global oil inventories could hit critical levels ahead of peak summer demand. This is not background noise, it is an active inflation re-accelerant running straight into Warsh's first FOMC meeting in two weeks.

VST and CEG held their bid: power infrastructure with nuclear anchoring remains the logical hedge when geopolitical risk spikes energy costs.

Breadth Warning Worth Flagging

Monday saw the S&P 500 post a new all-time high with only tech and energy in the green, and advance-decline spread was negative all five prior sessions. Strip out AI names and the index has gone effectively flat since February. The rally is real but thin. In a concentrated, thesis-driven strategy, any AI-specific air pocket hits hard and fast, which is worth flagging in this environment.

AVGO: Tonight Is the Moment. Q2 results drop after the close at 5 PM ET. Street consensus: revenue of ~$22.1B (+47% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $2.40. What matters more than the headline beat is Q3 guidance and any update to the $10.7B AI semiconductor revenue target. A strong print versus a modest reaction is the swing factor for the tape into Wednesday.
II. Thursday–Friday: What's on Deck

Thursday: Jobless Claims + AVGO Fallout

Weekly initial jobless claims land Thursday morning, the last labor data point before Friday's main event. Markets are watching for any deterioration from recent readings. AVGO's post-earnings reaction will also set intraday tone for the entire semi complex. Expect NVDA, AMD, and CRWV to trade in sympathy.

Friday: Jobs Friday, The Warsh Fed's First Real Test

May nonfarm payrolls drop at 8:30 AM ET on June 5. April came in at +115K, well above the +62K consensus. May consensus clusters in the 50K–100K range, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.3%. Barclays puts the four-month moving average at just 55K, the Fed's likely focal point.

The two-sided risk is acute. A hot print (>120K) reinforces higher-for-longer with oil already at $96 and core PCE at 3.3%, that's a yield spike, a growth scare, and a potential rotation out of duration-sensitive AI names. A cold print (<50K) resurrects recession anxiety and tests whether AI capex commitments hold if end-demand softens. The sweet spot — 75K to 100K — probably keeps the tape constructive into Warsh's June 16–17 FOMC. Markets are currently pricing a 97% probability of a hold at that meeting.

The Fed's pre-meeting quiet period begins Saturday. Whatever gets said in Friday's data or Thursday's Fed speakers is the last official input before a Warsh hold or surprise. Position accordingly.

Bottom Line

The week is a two-act play: Act I ends tonight with AVGO's print, the single most important near-term data point for this fund. Act II is Jobs Friday, which determines whether the macro backdrop hands Warsh a clean hold or forces his hand. No portfolio action warranted before tonight's call. After AVGO speaks, reassess the build path. On the nuclear pillar, LEU DOE contract expiry on June 30 is now 27 days out. That binary remains live and unchanged.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a personal investment portfolio, not a registered investment vehicle. Published June 3, 2026.