This week handed us whiplash by Tuesday and a potential war-ending headline by Wednesday morning. WTI crude plunged to $91.10 and Brent broke below $100, the first sub-$100 Brent print since April 22, after Axios reported the U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the conflict. The S&P 500 futures surged more than 0.9% pre-market on the news. This is the dominant macro event of the week, and it has direct consequences for the fund on multiple fronts.
I. The Pattern: Spike, Bounce, Peace Headline
Monday opened ugly. The UAE intercepted Iranian missiles, the first activation of its missile alert system since the ceasefire began, and oil spiked. WTI surged to $106.42 and Brent hit $114.44, the Dow shed 557 points, and the S&P 500 slid 0.41% to 7,200.75. Only Energy and Tech closed green in the S&P that session.
Tuesday stabilized. Oil eased after the Iran strikes did not escalate into full-blown infrastructure attacks, and markets recovered. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose 0.7% to fresh record highs, with tech leading the way, up more than 2% on the day. Then the earnings tape started printing.
Wednesday flipped the script entirely. The Axios peace-deal report hit overnight, Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.6%, and the energy complex cratered. Gas prices had just punched past $4.50/gallon nationally, fewer than 50 cents from the all-time high, and this headline is the most meaningful downside catalyst for that number since the war began.
II. Earnings: The Fund's Scorecard
AMD ($AMD) delivered. Q1 revenue came in at $10.25 billion, up 38% year-over-year, crushing the $9.89B consensus. Data Center revenue surged 57% to $5.8 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.37 beat estimates of $1.28. Q2 guidance of $11.2 billion landed above consensus. The stock surged after hours, and Morgan Stanley lifted its price target to $360. The AI chip thesis is executing, and this print confirms it.
PLTR ($PLTR) is the hard conversation. Revenue jumped 85% year-over-year to $1.63 billion, beating the $1.53B estimate. EPS of $0.33 beat $0.28. Full-year guidance was raised across every metric. The stock still dropped 7% on Tuesday. The market is saying the valuation premium demands more than a beat-and-raise, it demands perfection plus acceleration. Jefferies called the fundamentals exceptional but the multiple "heroic." The thesis remains under review until the valuation question resolves one way or the other. That calculus has not changed.
COIN ($COIN) reports Thursday after close. Consensus expects EPS of $0.36 on revenue of $1.51 billion. Bitcoin has been trading above $80,000 this week and the CLARITY Act stablecoin compromise is a direct tailwind for CRCL and the broader Digital Finance Rails pillar. Lawmakers reaching a compromise on stablecoin regulation is precisely the structural catalyst this pillar was built around. Watch Thursday's print closely, trading volume, institutional adoption, and regulatory commentary are the three metrics that matter.
III. The Final 48: Jobs, Coinbase, and the Iran Variable
Thursday: Initial jobless claims drop at 7:30 a.m. ET (prior: 189K). COIN reports after the bell, this is the fund's most important remaining earnings event of the week. Also on Thursday: Airbnb, Datadog, Block, Lyft, and Affirm all report. Watch Datadog as a proxy read on enterprise AI software spend.
Friday: April Non-Farm Payrolls at 7:30 a.m. ET. Consensus sits at ~49,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.3%. This is the first NFP print after the federal workforce disruption, so the range of outcomes is wide. A soft print gives the Fed cover to pivot, which is a direct tailwind for rate-sensitive growth names across all five pillars. A hot print keeps the "higher for longer" hawks in control, especially as oil-driven inflation remains sticky even with today's crude selloff.
The Iran variable is the wildcard that overrides everything else. A signed 14-point MOU would be the single largest positive macro shock of the year: oil drops materially, inflation expectations reprice, and Fed rate-cut odds surge. The fund's nuclear and power pillar, VST, CEG, LEU, is thesis-driven on long-duration AI data center demand, not oil prices, so a peace deal does not impair those positions. It does, however, remove a key upside volatility premium from energy names broadly. For this fund, a deal is net positive: lower inflation, higher growth expectations, and AI infrastructure spending accelerates as energy cost uncertainty fades.
Bottom line: AMD confirmed the AI chip thesis in print. PLTR's valuation review continues. COIN on Thursday is the remaining earnings watch. Friday's NFP is the macro swing factor. And the Iran headline, if it holds, is the week's most consequential development for the risk backdrop. The tape will come to the thesis, not the other way around.
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a private investment portfolio. All figures cited reflect publicly available market data as of May 6, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing in this letter should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security.