Jensen Huang delivered the most consequential earnings report on the Street this year, $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85% year-over-year, with Data Center alone printing $75.2 billion, and the stock closed down nearly 2% the following day. That's the market in one sentence. The S&P 500 tagged its eighth consecutive winning week, the Dow closed at a fresh record of 50,579, and yet the bond market remains the uninvited guest at every bull party. The 10-year finished Friday at 4.57%, the 30-year at 5.06%, Brent crude still above $100, and FOMC minutes that confirmed what nobody wanted confirmed: most policymakers think another rate hike is still on the table.

NVDA Sets the Ceiling, and the Market Ignores It

NVDA reported Q1 FY27 after the bell Wednesday: $81.6B in revenue, up 20% sequentially and 85% from a year ago. Data Center came in at $75.2B, up 92% YoY, a number that would have been the entire company's annual revenue not long ago. EPS landed at $1.87, ahead of the $1.76–1.78 consensus. The company also announced an $80 billion additional share repurchase authorization and raised its quarterly cash dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share.

And then the stock fell. NVDA declined roughly 1.75–2% in the session following the report, a now-familiar pattern where excellence meets an ever-rising bar. Jensen Huang said on the call that "the buildout of AI factories, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history, is accelerating at extraordinary speed." Wall Street heard it, nodded, and asked what's next. The next NVDA print is confirmed for August 26, with the Street modeling $87B in Q2 revenue.

The NVDA thesis does not require re-underwriting after a print like this. What it does require is patience while macro absorbs the rate-hike optionality the FOMC just put back on the table.

AMD made its own statement this week: shares hit an all-time high on the back of NVDA's results, as institutional money reaffirmed conviction in the broader AI silicon complex. AVGO remains the most compelling incomplete story in the chip pillar, with the thesis firmly intact.

FOMC Minutes, Iran, and $100 Oil: The Triple Ceiling

The week's macro setup was hostile from the jump. FOMC minutes from the April 28–29 meeting, the final meeting chaired by Jerome Powell before his tenure ended May 15, landed Wednesday and confirmed the hawkish lean that markets had been pricing around the edges. A majority of policymakers believe additional rate hikes may be warranted if inflation stays persistently above the 2% target. With April CPI running at 3.8%, up from just 2.4% in January, that's not a fringe view. Traders are now pricing roughly a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by December.

The Iran angle is not going away. Brent crude settled near $100–$104 for the week, still roughly 50% above pre-conflict levels. Secretary Rubio flagged "some progress" on a US-Iran framework, but Iran's Supreme Leader issued a directive that near-weapons-grade uranium cannot be sent abroad, directly hardening Tehran's position on the central US demand. Mixed signals produced mixed sessions: the Dow rallied more than 600 points Tuesday as rate and oil fears briefly eased, then the 10-year pushed back to 4.62% Thursday before settling at 4.57% Friday. The 30-year closed the week at 5.06%.

"Oil is still 50% above pre-conflict levels. That's not a rounding error, it's a persistent inflation tax that makes every Fed cut a heavier political lift."

For the fund's Nuclear / Power pillar (VST, CEG, LEU), a structurally higher energy price environment is a tailwind, not a headwind. AI data centers still need baseload power regardless of where the 10-year trades. The VST, CEG, and LEU thesis strengthens as energy prices stay elevated.

Digital Finance Rails: Stablecoin Infrastructure Advances, Crypto Prices Retreat

The regulatory architecture around stablecoins continues to take shape. Treasury's FinCEN and OFAC issued a joint proposed AML rule implementing the GENIUS Act this week, requiring permitted stablecoin issuers to be treated as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act. This is the rails getting built. CRCL (Circle) traded under pressure despite BlackRock participating in a $222M raise for Circle's Arc Blockchain, with the stock testing key support around the $113 level. Bitcoin closed the week near $74,600–$76,800, down on the week as inflation prints and hike-odds weighed on risk assets broadly.

The near-term pressure on COIN and CRCL is rate-driven, not thesis-driven. The GENIUS Act enacted in July 2025 is now in active rulemaking, final rules must take effect no later than January 18, 2027. Every month of implementation progress is a month closer to the institutional on-ramp that this pillar is built around.

The Market Has Momentum. The Macro Has a Veto.

Eight straight winning weeks for the S&P is an impressive streak, the longest since December 2023. But streaks end, and the setup for next week keeps the ceiling low. Key items on the calendar:

The April PCE print on Thursday is the week's decisive data point. April CPI already printed at 3.8%, if PCE confirms that trajectory, the 40% December-hike probability climbs, yields re-test recent highs, and growth/AI names face another headwind. If PCE softens, the bull case gets breathing room. Watch it closely.

On the stock-specific front: AVGO and META both offer their most compelling setups on weakness rather than strength. PLTR remains in thesis-review status; the stock has been resilient, which is both encouraging and frustrating given the unresolved review of its heroic multiple.

The next three months are the period where the macro noise either fades or forces a structural re-rating of AI multiples. NVDA's $81.6B quarter, with Data Center compounding at 92%, is the single best argument that the supercycle is real. The bond market's 5.06% 30-year is the single best argument for why the valuation math is tighter than it looks. Both things are true. We own the former and manage around the latter.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a private portfolio. All views expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published May 23, 2026.