This week gave you everything: a peace-deal surge that cratered oil 7% in a single session, a Hormuz re-escalation that took half of it back by Friday, a fractured Fed that logged its most dissent-heavy vote since 1992, and AMD printing a clean Q1 beat that Wall Street rewarded with analyst upgrades across the board. Meanwhile, Trump boards Air Force One for Beijing on May 14, the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade, and the outcome of that summit will shape the chip export control and rare earth landscape the fund lives inside. Rarely does a single week hand you this many thesis-relevant data points simultaneously.
I. Hormuz: Still the Most Important Price Signal in the Portfolio
Wednesday was the week's inflection. Two U.S. officials and two other sources told Axios that the White House believes it is nearing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear talks. The crude market moved with conviction: U.S. crude closed down 7%, at $95.08 per barrel, and Brent closed down 7.8%, at $101.27 per barrel.
That lasted about 36 hours. Oil prices moved sharply higher on Thursday after a media report that the U.S. military had carried out strikes on Iranian locations near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil resumed its rally Friday after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait, fanning fears that the fragile ceasefire was unraveling. Both Brent and WTI remain in the red for the week, down more than 6%. Net-net: oil structurally lower on the week, but resolution is nowhere near confirmed.
Lower oil eases near-term input cost pressure and reduces inflation risk that was blocking Fed cuts. But the structural argument for nuclear baseload, dispatchable, Hormuz-immune, 24/7 power for AI data centers, is untouched by whether WTI trades at $95 or $115. The VST and CEG thesis holds through the oil swings. Citi raised its baseline Brent forecast by $15 to $110 and pushed back its base case for the strait's reopening to the end of May. Until the Strait is fully open and inventories rebuild, the energy-scarcity narrative that prices nuclear as critical infrastructure remains intact.
II. AMD Beat, Fed Cracked, Macro Map Shifted
AMD delivered the cleanest earnings print of the AI chip complex this week. AMD reported strong Q1 2026 earnings with $10.25 billion in revenue, leading to significant analyst upgrades: Bernstein raised its price target to $525, while Goldman Sachs set a new target of $450 after noting strong demand in AI-focused data center sales. The thesis is doing exactly what it was supposed to do.
The Fed was the other major market-mover. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range for a third consecutive meeting, but the decision was not unanimous, with Governor Miran voting to lower rates by 25bps and three other members objecting to the easing bias language in the statement. The 8-4 vote marked the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented against a FOMC decision. Powell noted that core inflation is running at 3.2%, "moving, albeit just a little bit, in the wrong direction," with headline inflation pressure emanating from the Gulf.
Wednesday's meeting likely served as Jay Powell's final as Fed chair, after the morning's vote saw Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the central bank advance through the Senate Banking Committee. Once a new chair is in seat, the Fed may seek to cut interest rates one or two times to bring overnight rates closer to the 3%–3.25% range. A Warsh-led Fed cutting into a still-elevated inflation print is a non-trivial risk to long-duration growth names. Watch the confirmation vote, expected around May 15.
III. Beijing Incoming: Rare Earths and Chip Controls Are the Variables
The macro event that will matter most for this fund next week doesn't happen in Washington, it happens in Beijing. When Trump lands in Beijing on May 14, he will become the first U.S. president to visit China in nearly a decade. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has signaled that Trump will seek "stability" rather than a reset, with recent talks centering on rare-earth supply and the outlines of a joint "Board of Trade."
The governments would lower tariffs on products they approve for trade and hike them, or keep them at already high levels, on products they want to block, creating what one person described as a "tariff canyon." For the AI chip complex, the critical read-through is what happens to export controls on advanced semiconductors. On strategic flash points such as Taiwan, Middle East security, and export controls on advanced chips, substantive agreement is unlikely. That's the base case. But even a softening in tone on rare earth export curbs would be a direct positive for NVDA, AMD, and AVGO's supply chain risk premium.
AMD's Q1 confirms the demand cycle is real and accelerating. NVDA and AVGO report in coming weeks. The Beijing summit is a known binary: a managed-trade framework with rare-earth language is constructive; any re-escalation on chip controls is a headwind. AVGO's thesis is anchored to price and fundamentals, not headlines.
IV. Digital Finance Rails: GENIUS Implementation Clock Ticking
No dramatic headline for COIN or CRCL this week, but the quiet regulatory machinery keeps grinding in the right direction. The FDIC announced a 90-day comment period extension for its notice of proposed rulemaking to implement the GENIUS Act for FDIC-supervised state nonmember banks and state savings associations seeking to issue payment stablecoins through a subsidiary, the comment period closes May 18. Final rules crystallizing means the compliance layer for USDC-scale stablecoin infrastructure, CRCL's entire reason for existing, becomes law, not just a Senate vote. The pillar thesis keeps hardening.
V. Five Catalysts That Will Define the Next Letter
| Date | Event | Pillar Impact |
|---|---|---|
| May 14 | Trump–Xi Beijing Summit begins | Chips / Rare Earths, binary for Pillar I |
| ~May 15 | Kevin Warsh full Senate confirmation vote | Rate path, all growth pillars |
| May 15 | Iran response to U.S. peace framework (Pakistan talks) | Oil / Hormuz: Pillar II and macro |
| May 18 | FDIC GENIUS Act comment period closes | Digital Finance Rails: Pillar III (COIN, CRCL) |
| Week of May 18 | NVDA Q1 2026 earnings (expected) | Pillar I anchor, sets the tone for the entire AI infrastructure complex |
The Iran situation carries the most immediate binary risk. The U.S. and Iran have reportedly been working with mediators on a one-page framework to restart talks over a lasting peace deal, with discussions anticipated to kick off next week in Pakistan. "The risk of a proposed U.S. peace deal breaking down will likely keep oil markets volatile," said ANZ Research. If talks in Islamabad produce even preliminary language on Hormuz transit, oil could retrace another leg lower, and the near-term pressure on Pillar II names like VST and CEG would increase. That near-term softness does not change the long-duration power thesis.
NVDA earnings will be the capstone. Everything this fund owns in Pillar I, and the structural credibility of the entire AI capex supercycle narrative, runs through Nvidia's guidance on data center revenue and Blackwell shipment cadence. With 84% of S&P 500 companies reporting EPS above estimates this season, above both the 5-year and 10-year averages, the bar for AI infrastructure names is set high. Nvidia will need to clear it with forward guidance, not just Q1 results.
"The Beijing summit and the Hormuz framework are the same trade: both resolve to lower energy costs and lower supply chain risk for AI infrastructure. If both move in the right direction simultaneously, this portfolio is positioned to capture it across every pillar."
The fund's five pillars absorbed a week of maximum noise, a peace deal that wasn't, a Fed vote that fractured, an AMD quarter that delivered, and a China summit that lands in five days. None of it changes the structural thesis. AVGO and META are the names where weakness is most interesting; PLTR's heroic multiple remains the open question; and CRWV, COIN, and CRCL each had a quiet, thesis-affirming week.
The fund does not trade the Hormuz ceasefire. It owns the AI buildout that requires uninterruptible baseload power regardless of where WTI settles. It owns the stablecoin rails that are becoming federal law whether or not oil reopens. It owns the chip complex that is being confirmed, quarter by quarter, as the backbone of the next computing era. Stay the course. Let Beijing and Islamabad do their work. Watch NVDA earnings like the earnings report of the decade, because for this thesis, it is.
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a private investment account. All information is believed to be from reliable sources but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Published May 9, 2026.