Mid-Week Check-In: July 1, 2026

The quarter is closed. The Nasdaq posted its best three-month run since 2020, up roughly 20%, and the S&P 500 added 14%, despite five straight losing sessions to end June and a Mag Seven that shed an estimated $2.3 trillion in market cap last month alone. The setup heading into the back half of the year: a hawkish Fed, a still-hot inflation print, Iran in a fragile stand-down, and a jobs number landing Thursday into a bond market that closes at 2 p.m. No Friday. No escape hatch.

I. Where We Stand: Monday Through Wednesday

The Rebound That Arrived Right on Schedule

Monday and Tuesday delivered the snapback. Tech led, chips led the tech. NVDA added 2.6% on Tuesday. AMD surged 7.7% in the same session, its strongest single day in weeks. The Nasdaq closed Tuesday up 1.52%, the S&P up 0.79%, the Dow at a second straight record close. Quarter-end markup? Probably some of it. But the directional read is clear: last week's rotation out of tech appears to have been a washout, not a regime change.

AVGO: The Build Zone Is Now Live

AVGO spent the last week of June consolidating in the $370–$379 range after its June earnings-driven selloff, down roughly 20% from its May peak of $495. The thesis hasn't changed. Q2 revenue of $22.19 billion was up 48% year-over-year. The market's complaint was Q3 AI chip guidance of $16 billion versus the $17.2 billion consensus. That's not thesis damage, it's a reset of near-term expectations against a business whose fundamentals are intact. Patience is the edge here.

CRWV: Backlog Expands, Stock Stabilizes

CRWV is trading near $99 Wednesday, bouncing off its recent lows, after the company disclosed a $99 billion contract backlog anchored by NVDA, META, Microsoft, and OpenAI. BNP Paribas initiated with Outperform this week, price target $192. The structural story, purpose-built GPU cloud, hyperscaler-grade backlog, and European capacity expansion underway, remains intact.

Warsh at Sintra: Watch the Nuance

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is on a panel at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal this morning. His first meeting as Chair produced a hawkish hold at 3.50%–3.75% and a dot plot that shifted the median projection toward at least one rate hike before year-end. Warsh also notably declined to submit his own dot, a first for a sitting chair, putting more weight on each subsequent data release. Every word from Sintra matters. The fund's view: the rate trajectory is hawkish until proven otherwise.

II. What's On Deck: Thursday and Friday

Thursday: The Only Session That Matters This Week

The June nonfarm payrolls report drops at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday, July 2. Markets are closed Friday for the observed Independence Day holiday. The bond market closes early Thursday at 2:00 p.m. ET. That structure compresses all price discovery into a single session with thin liquidity into the close. Consensus is 115,000 jobs added, unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. May came in at 172,000, a strong print that helped harden the Fed's hawkish posture at the June meeting.

The NFP binary: A print above 150K with wages firm likely accelerates hike pricing, bad for duration, bad for multiples, bad for tech. A soft print (sub-90K) reopens the cut conversation but may rattle equity sentiment on growth fears. The "just right" zone is 100K–130K: confirms labor stability without inflaming the inflation hawks.

LEU: Binary Event Still On the Clock

LEU is the one position where Thursday's macro context intersects with a company-specific catalyst still unresolved. The DOE contract renewal, which expired June 30, remains the key binary for the thesis. No update has been confirmed publicly this week, which keeps it firmly on the watch list.

The Week After Matters More Than This One

FOMC minutes from the June 18 meeting publish Wednesday, July 8: Warsh's first meeting as Chair. Those minutes will reveal committee division, the inflation-versus-labor trade-off framing, and how seriously a 2026 hike is being discussed internally. June CPI lands July 14, the last major inflation read before the July 29 FOMC decision. May headline ran +4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs report Q2 earnings the same morning. The real pressure week is next week. Thursday's NFP sets the table.

Bottom line: Q2 is history. The fund exits the quarter in constructive shape across all five pillars. One session stands between us and a long holiday weekend, and it's the session that shapes July Fed pricing. Hold positions. Let Thursday speak.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Nova X Convergence Fund letters are published for educational and informational purposes. All investment decisions involve risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Published July 1, 2026.