Monday opened with a rotational gut punch. Tuesday delivered a global chip rout. Wednesday is handing us a Micron earnings print after the bell and an NVIDIA annual meeting. This is not the sleepy post-Fed drift week anyone expected, and with PCE landing Thursday morning, the market doesn't get a breather until Friday's close at the earliest.
The Chip Rout Was Real: But the Thesis Isn't Broken
Monday set the tone fast. GOOG cratered 5% after Reuters reported a prominent DeepMind scientist was defecting to Anthropic: AI talent flight read as capex-cycle doubt, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.3% while the Dow and Russell 2000 moved to record highs. The rotation was explicit: sell crowded AI leadership, buy everything else.
Tuesday was worse. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10%, triggering circuit breakers twice, as Samsung and SK Hynix each fell more than 12% on fears that the AI memory trade had become dangerously overcrowded. The contagion was immediate: the Nasdaq fell 2.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, and the S&P semiconductor sub-index shed roughly 6% in a single session. NVDA dropped 3.2% to approximately $202. Bitcoin slid 3.2% to $62,561, its lowest level since mid-June. The dollar index pushed to a new 2026 high above 101.
The bond market was steady amid the chaos. The 10-year Treasury closed around 4.5%; the 2-year at 4.19%. No flight-to-quality bond rally, this was a crowding-unwind in semis, not a macro panic. That distinction matters.
Pillar-by-Pillar: Where We Stand
AI Chips / Hardware · NVDA, AMD, AVGO: All three took Tuesday's heat. AVGO traded a range of $374–$391 on Tuesday. NVDA's pullback to the low $200s looks like profit-taking off the post-earnings surge, not a thesis crack. Bernstein maintained its Buy rating on NVDA through the selloff.
AI Chips · Wildcard Tonight: MU reports fiscal Q3 after tonight's close. Consensus sits at roughly $34.7 billion in revenue and ~$20 EPS, with guidance implying gross margins near 81%. MU fell more than 10% intraday Tuesday before recovering, a classic pre-earnings shakeout. MU is not a portfolio name, but its print and HBM4 demand commentary will set the tone for NVDA, AVGO, and AMD Thursday morning. This is the most important data point of the week for Pillar One.
Nuclear / Power · VST, CEG, LEU: The pillar is quiet operationally this week, but the clock is ticking on LEU. The current DOE HALEU production contract expires June 30, six days from today. The DOE holds options for up to eight additional years of production beyond that date. No announcement yet on whether the next option gets exercised. Expect binary price action in LEU around any DOE announcement this week or next.
Digital Finance Rails · COIN, CRCL: Bitcoin's slide to $62,561 Tuesday pressured COIN. This week's macro volatility raises the stakes ahead of Thursday's PCE data. The CRCL stablecoin thesis is insulated from crypto price beta.
AI Software / Platforms · META, NOW: No stock-specific catalyst this week for either name, but Thursday PCE data could move rate-sensitive software multiples in either direction.
Specialized GPU Cloud · CRWV: A quiet positive: CRWV and Nebius made their Nasdaq-100 debut Monday. Index inclusion brings passive buying demand that doesn't care about Tuesday's selloff.
PCE + GDP: The Print That Reprices Everything
Thursday is the heavy session. May PCE prices, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, land alongside the Q1 GDP final estimate, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims. That's thirteen scheduled economic events in a single morning. With Chair Warsh's dot plot already leaning toward potential hikes and the 2-year yield sitting at 4.19%, a hot PCE number would rattle rate-sensitive names across Pillars Two, Four, and Five. A cool print, plausible given falling oil from the Iran deal, could be the relief valve the AI complex needs heading into month-end.
Friday brings the University of Michigan final June consumer sentiment reading. Lower priority than Thursday's data, but sentiment readings have moved markets in this environment.
Bottom Line
Two-day narrative: the AI crowding trade got stress-tested and survived the structure intact. The thesis has not changed, capex commitments from hyperscalers are not retreating, HBM demand is not reversing, and the nuclear buildout has a six-year runway regardless of a single contract renewal. What changed is price: AVGO is cheaper today than it was Friday against an unchanged thesis. Tonight's MU print and Thursday's PCE are the next two gates. Both matter. Watch them in order.
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Nova X Convergence Fund letters reflect the views of the fund's management team as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any security. Published June 24, 2026.