The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,230. The Nasdaq settled at 25,114. Both indices touched all-time intraday highs. April was the S&P's best calendar month since November 2020, up more than 10%, and the Nasdaq's best since April 2020, up more than 15%. The rally came against a backdrop of $100-per-barrel crude, $6-per-gallon gasoline in California, an Iran war that has now disrupted global shipping for more than two months, and a Federal Reserve that just voted 8-to-4 to do nothing. Markets are speaking clearly. The question is whether you are listening.
This was not a week of noise. It was a week of confirmation, on AI capex, on monetary policy transition, and on the geopolitical stalemate that continues to underwrite the fund's nuclear and power thesis. Let me take each in turn.
I. The $650 Billion Confirmation
Wednesday night delivered the most consequential earnings cluster of the year. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all reported Q1 2026 results after the close. Every single one beat on revenue. Every single one raised full-year capital expenditure guidance. Combined 2026 AI infrastructure spending across the five major hyperscalers is now on track to exceed $650 billion, a figure larger than the GDP of most European countries.
The specifics matter. Alphabet delivered $109.9 billion in revenue; Google Cloud grew 63% year-over-year to $20 billion, blowing past the $18 billion estimate and accelerating sharply from 48% growth in Q4 2025. The company guided 2026 capex to $180–$190 billion and said next year's spending will "significantly increase" from there. Microsoft's AI business is now running at a $37 billion annualized revenue rate, up 123% year-over-year. Azure remains supply-constrained, management used the phrase "supply shortage growing" for the third consecutive quarter. Meta beat on EPS ($7.31 vs. $6.79 estimated) and revenue ($56.31 billion, up 33% year-over-year, the fastest growth since 2021) but raised its full-year capex range to $125–$145 billion, citing higher memory component costs and expanded data center capacity. The stock fell roughly 7% after-hours on the user miss and capex shock. It recovered most of those losses by Friday.
Aggregate hyperscaler capex is not decelerating. It is accelerating. Every socket that gets filled is a unit of NVDA, AMD, or AVGO silicon. The supply constraint commentary from Microsoft and Amazon, capacity constrained through at least 2026, is the most direct confirmation the fund's infrastructure thesis has received this cycle.
The chip complex had a textured week. NVDA jumped 4% early in the week, briefly pushing its market cap above $5 trillion. A Tuesday selloff, triggered by a leaked report questioning OpenAI's internal revenue trajectory, not any deterioration in chip fundamentals, clipped the gains. By Thursday and Friday, the tape corrected itself. More interesting: AMD and AVGO each pushed roughly +3% on April 30, partially decoupling from Nvidia as hyperscaler earnings confirmed the custom silicon buildout. Meta explicitly noted it is rolling out more than 1 gigawatt of custom silicon developed with Broadcom, while also deploying AMD chips alongside new NVIDIA systems. The AI trade is no longer a one-ticker trade. That is good news for a fund that holds all three.
AVGO's $73 billion custom silicon backlog, anchored by the Google TPU partnership through 2031 and the deepening Meta MTIA pact, makes it structurally insulated from Nvidia's day-to-day volatility in ways that were underappreciated before this earnings season. The setup rewards patience over chasing this week's print.
II. Powell's Last Stand, and the 8-4 Fracture
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% on Wednesday. That part was fully priced. What was not priced: four FOMC members dissented, the most since 1992, producing an 8-4 split decision. The dissenters wanted cuts. The holdouts wanted to stay put in the face of still-elevated energy inflation and a labor market that, while softening, hasn't broken. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 5 basis points to 4.41% on the announcement.
Wednesday also likely marked Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair. Kevin Warsh's nomination cleared the Senate Banking Committee along party lines. Powell, for his part, said he will remain on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship concludes on May 15, citing the legal actions taken against him. "The things that have happened really in the last three months have left me no choice but to stay," he said. The incoming Warsh Fed enters with an FOMC already fractured and a market that, post-earnings, briefly shifted bets toward a December rate hike (CME FedWatch moved from 0% to 9.1% probability overnight).
Rates staying higher for longer, driven by energy inflation, is a net positive for contracted baseload power assets. VST and CEG are not rate-sensitive in the traditional sense, they are priced-power assets with long-term PPA structures. Higher energy costs raise the implicit floor for what data center operators will pay for dedicated nuclear capacity. The thesis is intact.
III. GDP, Iran, and the Macro Backdrop
The BEA's advance estimate dropped Thursday: Q1 2026 real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace. The headline composition matters: investment led the acceleration, with AI-driven equipment spending a primary contributor. Consumer spending decelerated, California gasoline prices have hit $6 per gallon, a 30% increase since U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran began in late February, and the personal savings rate declined as households drew down reserves to maintain consumption. That is not a sustainable configuration.
On the geopolitical front, Iranian state media reported Thursday that Tehran had sent a fresh negotiation proposal to Pakistani mediators. Markets rallied on the headline. The proposal has not been accepted, Hormuz remains disrupted, and WTI crude settled the week at roughly $102/barrel. The structural effect, persistently elevated energy costs that raise the value of domestic baseload power and accelerate data center operators' appetite for dedicated nuclear PPAs, continues to compound in the fund's favor.
The GENIUS Act is law. CRCL's USDC infrastructure sits at the center of the new regulatory framework. No new catalyst this week, but the legislative foundation is hardening. A Warsh Fed with a known preference for financial deregulation is a tailwind for institutional crypto adoption over the medium term. The COIN and CRCL thesis is intact.
What the Week Changed, and What It Didn't
The earnings week confirmed the AI buildout's non-negotiability. It also introduced two variables to monitor: the META user count decline, attributed to internet disruptions in Iran and a WhatsApp restriction in Russia, and the rising cost of AI infrastructure components, particularly HBM memory, which is sold out through 2026. The latter is a margin headwind for META and MSFT but a direct demand signal for the chip and infrastructure layer. This fund sits on the right side of that equation.
| Pillar | Ticker(s) | Week Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| AI Chips / Hardware | NVDA · AMD · AVGO | 🟢 Strongly Reinforced, hyperscaler capex surge confirms demand floor |
| Nuclear / Power | VST · CEG · LEU | 🟢 Reinforced, sustained energy inflation raises PPA floor value |
| Digital Finance Rails | COIN · CRCL | 🟡 Neutral/Positive: GENIUS Act regime operative; Warsh tailwind developing |
| AI Software / Platforms | PLTR · META | 🟡 Mixed: META fundamentals solid (rev +33%), user disruption a watch item; PLTR thesis review continues |
| Specialized GPU Cloud | CRWV | 🟢 Reinforced, supply-constrained Azure commentary validates contracted GPU cloud model |
On META: the thesis is the AI ad monetization layer, not the user count. Revenue grew 33%, the fastest pace since 2021, and the ads business alone generated $55 billion. The capex raise reflects higher memory prices, not a change in strategy. The after-hours selloff was overdone.
On AVGO: the earnings week made the strongest fundamental case yet. Custom silicon is not a trend, it is a decade-long structural commitment by every major hyperscaler. AVGO's $73 billion backlog, its TPU lock-in with Google through 2031, and its deepening Meta MTIA work make it one of the most asymmetric stories in the chip complex.
"The supply shortage is growing." Microsoft said it three quarters in a row. Every quarter it goes unsaid is a quarter the GPU cloud thesis weakens. This week, they said it again.
The Calendar That Matters
The next two weeks are bridge weeks before the most important single event on the fund's calendar: NVDA reports May 20. That print, against a backdrop of $650B+ in confirmed hyperscaler capex and a supply-constrained Azure, is the next genuine thesis checkpoint for Pillars 1 and 5. Between now and then, three things warrant active attention.
Jobs Report (Friday, May 8). April nonfarm payrolls land Friday morning. The last read showed unemployment ticking up to 4.3%. A further softening, coupled with persistent energy inflation, sharpens the Fed's dilemma and amplifies the case for a Warsh Fed that ultimately tilts toward cuts. Watch the 10-year reaction more than the headline number. A move above 4.50% would be the first genuine threat to the fund's duration-sensitive nuclear names.
Kevin Warsh's Confirmation Vote. The Senate Banking Committee cleared Warsh along party lines. A full Senate floor vote is expected before May 15. Warsh's confirmation brings a known deregulatory posture on digital assets and a more accommodative lean on rates, both tailwinds for Digital Finance Rails. The 4-dissenter FOMC he inherits is the real story: building consensus to cut into an inflationary energy environment will test his tenure from day one.
Iran Negotiations. Tehran's proposal to Pakistani mediators is the first formal overture in three weeks. Any credible ceasefire framework that reopens Hormuz would send WTI lower and ease the energy inflation pressure that currently props up nuclear PPA pricing. This is a two-sided risk: a resolution would pressure VST and CEG by removing the energy premium while unlocking broader equity expansion. The base case remains prolonged disruption, but the tail is live.
No major pillar-name earnings are scheduled for next week, which makes it a window to resist the temptation to read too much into the Monday open. The AI buildout is confirmed and the power thesis is hardening, with AVGO and META the two names the market is now offering at more attractive prices. The discipline is in the waiting.
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Nova X Convergence Fund is a personal investment portfolio. All figures and positions reflect data as of May 2, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.: May 2, 2026