Three trading days, three distinct personalities. Monday delivered a relief rally on the U.S.-Iran peace deal. Tuesday handed it back, tech sold off while the Dow notched a record and small-caps went nowhere useful. Wednesday opens with chips recovering, retail sales printing hot, and a new Federal Reserve chair about to hold his first press conference. A lot is happening. Let's cut through it.
Monday: Peace Trade, Then Rotation Hits
June 15 opened with a tailwind: the Nasdaq and S&P 500 jumped after the U.S. and Iran announced a peace deal, pulling oil lower and lifting sentiment broadly. Falling oil prices provided a supportive macro backdrop as markets also priced in the start of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Chip names caught a bid, the right day, the right catalyst.
Tuesday erased the headline optimism. U.S. equities were mixed, with the Dow Jones higher by about 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were lower, indicating some broadening of returns beyond technology and growth-oriented names. Separately, the Bank of Japan's decision to raise rates to their highest in decades may have had a modest impact on equities. The rotation trade is real and it is compressing multiples in exactly the long-duration names at the core of this thesis.
Wednesday: Retail Beats, Chips Recover, Warsh Speaks
Retail sales surged in May, up 0.9% from April versus expectations for 0.5%, a consumer that isn't breaking, even with elevated inflation. Major indexes tracked flat to higher early as chips began recovering from Tuesday's slide, though yields stayed slightly elevated.
The macro weight of the week now rests on one event: new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh steps into the spotlight at a Fed meeting where rates aren't expected to change but the overall atmosphere could evolve appreciably. Chair Warsh's press conference will be closely parsed for tone, his early signals as chair have leaned hawkish, and a press conference that emphasizes the Fed's inflation-fighting resolve could further compress multiples for long-duration growth stocks. The Summary of Economic Projections is likely to show the median dot-plot participant indicating no cuts this year, after the March SEP had anticipated at least one. That's the repricing risk hiding in plain sight this afternoon.
CRWV: Mid-Week Standout
CoreWeave delivered the sharpest thesis-confirming data point of the week. The company posted record MLPerf Training v6.0 results using the same cloud infrastructure it offers to clients today, training DeepSeek-V3 671B in just 2.02 minutes on 8,192 Nvidia GB300 NVL72 GPUs, the biggest GB300 cluster in this round. CRWV stock was up 10% on Tuesday. CoreWeave also confirmed it has been selected for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index. Index inclusion adds a layer of passive demand on top of an already thesis-confirming week.
Context on the broader chip stack: shares of Nvidia and Broadcom have gained nearly 10% and 11%, respectively, year to date as of mid-June. NVDA is trading near $208. AVGO is navigating a mixed environment, with the thesis intact through the volatility. AVGO has a cash dividend of $0.65 with an ex-date of June 22, minor but worth noting for timing.
Thursday, June 18: Triple Witching + Data Dump
Thursday is the most operationally complex day of the remaining week. Because Juneteenth falls on a Friday, triple witching is moved up to Thursday: June 18, for the June expiration cycle. That means simultaneous expiration of index options, index futures, and single-stock options across the full market. Expect amplified intraday volatility across the high-beta AI complex.
The U.S. economic calendar on June 18 includes Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Survey, Conference Board Leading Indicators, and the Natural Gas Storage Report. Jobless claims will be the number to watch: a second consecutive hot labor print would further cement the no-cut consensus and give Warsh cover to stay firmly on hold through year-end.
Friday, June 19: Juneteenth, Markets Closed
No session Friday. The week ends Thursday's close. That compresses the week's remaining price discovery into a single, options-expiration-heavy session. Plan positioning accordingly, volatility on Thursday is structural, not signal.
Bottom Line
The week's thesis-level read is this: the consumer is holding, the AI infrastructure build continues to accelerate (CRWV's MLPerf numbers are not noise), and the only real risk is Warsh delivering a tone so hawkish it extends the rotation trade another leg. Markets are looking for clarity on whether the Fed views current inflation pressures as temporary and manageable, or whether policymakers still see a need for tighter policy later in the year. If Warsh lands neutral-to-firm, not hostile, the chip recovery that started Wednesday morning has legs into Thursday's open. If he surprises to the hawkish side, brace for another growth-to-value flush ahead of the expiration bell.
The fund's conviction pillars are intact. Execution remains disciplined. Warsh speaks. Then we trade.
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All views expressed represent the analytical perspective of Nova X Convergence Fund and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Published June 17, 2026.